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. 2020 Sep 1;4(9):e2020GH000277.
doi: 10.1029/2020GH000277. eCollection 2020 Sep.

The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI

Alexander F More  1   2   3 , Christopher P Loveluck  4 , Heather Clifford  2 , Michael J Handley  2 , Elena V Korotkikh  2 , Andrei V Kurbatov  2 , Michael McCormick  1 , Paul A Mayewski  2
Affiliations

The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI

Alexander F More et al. Geohealth. .

Abstract

The H1N1 "Spanish influenza" pandemic of 1918-1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temperatures increased casualties in the battlefields of World War I (WWI), setting the stage for the spread of the pandemic at the end of the conflict. Multiple independent records of temperature, precipitation, and mortality corroborate these findings.

Keywords: Climate Change; H1N1; Ice core; Pandemic; Spanish Flu; World War I.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest relevant to this study.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
High marine air influx in the years of World War I and Spanish influenza 1914–1919. Concentrations of Na (ICPMS), Cl− (IC) marine air proxies in the Colle Gnifetti glacier (4,450 m.a.s.l. Swiss‐Italian Alps) in the years 1880–1980 (with a possible error of ±1 year in this segment of the core, per Bohleber et al., 2018). The years 1914–1918 show the highest concentrations in a century, indicating an extreme influx of cold marine air from the North Atlantic.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Marine air influx and total deaths in Europe 1914–1920. Concentrations of Na, Cl−, marine air proxies in the CG glacier and total mortality for 13 European countries 1914–1920 (Ansart et al., 2009; Bunle, 1954). In 1915, 1916, and 1918, overall mortality peaked during or immediately after periods of high marine air influx over Europe. Major battles of WWI where precipitation was a significant factor are labeled in black, along with the period of the three major waves of the Spanish Flu pandemic, the deadliest of which occurred in the autumn of 1918.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Mean temperature, precipitation, and total deaths in Europe, 1914–1920. Mean values of instrumental measurements of temperature and precipitation with overall deaths for 13 European countries (Ansart et al., 2009; Bunle, 1954; Schneider et al., 2014; Willmott & Matsuura, 2001). In the autumn and winter of 1918, mortality peaked together with high precipitation, with a peak in both records in the month of October, a slight decrease in November, and another peak in December of that year. The deadliest wave of the Spanish Influenza pandemic claimed most of its victims in the same months, where the arrow points to a double peak in both deaths and precipitation.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Atmospheric pressure anomaly over Europe. The CG ice core site (4,450 m.a.s.l.) is shown as a star. A mean sea level pressure difference map was calculated for September 1918 from an average for the 1900–1930 interval in the ECMWF ERA‐20C reanalysis data set via the Climate Reanalyzer™. A strong Iceland low pressure system influenced unusually cold and wet climate conditions during the month of September 1918.
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