Jul 02
ABC News, Win McNamee and Scott Olson via Getty Images
Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 28, 2024Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
June 26, 2024New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins
Three Trump-endorsed candidates also lost in Republican primaries.
June 25, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
3 hours ago
Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?
Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
3 hours ago
July 02
SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?
It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 02
July 02
What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.
July 02
July 01
What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Less than the current front-runners might hope.
July 01
June 28
Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 28
June 28
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28
June 28
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28
June 28
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28
June 27
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.
June 27
June 27
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 27
June 26
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26
June 26
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
June 26
June 25
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25
June 25
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 25
June 25
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25
June 25
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25
June 24
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
June 24
June 24
Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars
Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.
June 24
June 20
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
June 20
June 20
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20
June 20
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20
June 20
Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
June 20
June 18
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.
June 18
June 17
7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.
June 17
June 14
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
June 14
June 13
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
June 13
June 13
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
June 13
June 13
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
June 13
June 12
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12
June 11
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11
June 11
Should voters look at election forecast as codification?
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11
June 11
Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11
June 11
538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11
June 04
Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
June 04
June 04
Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
June 04
June 03
How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
June 03
June 03
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03
June 03
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03
May 31
Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
May 31
May 31
Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
May 31
May 31
How the jury got to the guilty verdict
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 31
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